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South Sudan: Two Years In and a Roadmap for 2016

12/15/2015

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DANIEL SULLIVAN - UNITED TO END GENOCIDE - DEC 15th, 2015 - The news out of South Sudan over the past two years has been devastating. And as we mark the beginning of the third year of conflict, the risk of famine and further atrocities remains grave.
But not all the news is bad. In 2015, a peace agreement was signed following increased regional and international efforts. The coming year has the potential to see that peace consolidated – if the country’s leaders follow through.
Below are three pieces of good news that came out of South Sudan in 2015 and three steps that must be taken to ensure that 2016 ends the trend of violence in the world’s newest nation.

2015 Highlights

A Peace Deal Signed – It took immense international effort and far too long, but in August 2015 the Compromise Peace Agreement was signed laying out a road map for democratic transition. Key to the deal is a power-sharing arrangement in which rebel leader and former Vice President Riek Machar returns to the capital Juba as a deputy in a 30 month transitional period leading up to new elections.
A Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) was set up led by former President of Botswana Festus Mogae and with strong backing by the UN and African Union. Implementation has already been delayed and the ceasefire violated on both sides, but the road map remains and with sustained international attention progress can be made.
Civilians Protected – The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has prioritized protection of civilians and continues to shelter over 180,000 people in protection of civilian sites around the country. Despite government protests, UNMISS’ civilian protection mandate is set to be renewed and its force strengthened with additional peacekeepers. While challenges remain in maintaining the sites, this remains an unprecedented move that has saved tens of thousands of lives.
Famine Averted – UN agencies have released dire warnings of looming famine, including as recently as October. Thanks to an outpouring of international aid and continued pressure for humanitarian access, the worst has been avoided. Still the International Committee of the Red Cross warns that hundreds of thousands of people in South Sudan still face “severe food shortages and an alarming hunger situation”. International efforts have prevented the situation from being much worse and are worth celebrating. But they should also serve as a reminder of what failure to implement peace can mean and thus help to ensure that such emergency efforts do not need to be repeated.

What is Needed for 2016

Security Arrangements – One of the first signs of progress in implementing the peace agreement was the beginning of removal of government and government-allied Ugandan troops from the capital Juba. In order for a transition to take place, a whole series of steps must be taken from removal of remaining troops outside of Juba to the formation of Joint Police Units and disarmament and demobilization of troops. Asstated by former U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, Princeton Lyman, a key first step will be strengthening the Ceasefire Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring Mechanism and UNMISS to ensure international monitoring prevents a return to conflict at the fragile early stages.
Establishing a Transitional Government – A Transitional Government of National Unity was supposed to be set up by November but has now slipped to January, partially due to security concerns by the opposition as many troops remain in the capital. As an advance team arrives in Juba ahead of Machar’s first return since the conflict began, steps must be taken to quickly begin the official 30-month transition period. Counterproductive moves by President Kiir, like setting up 18 new states and further restricting civil society space, must be rejected and focus turned to establishing a new constitution.
Accountability, Hybrid Court – An essential part of the peace agreement was the establishment of ahybrid court to ensure accountability for the atrocities committed during the conflict in South Sudan. There has been no progress on this point so far and if there is to be reconciliation and peace that works this will be needed. A first step will be appointing a head of the Hybrid Court.
This is by no means an exhaustive list. It should go without saying that humanitarian access should be improved and both sides held accountable for blocking of aid and harassment of aid workers. Fighting corruption will be an essential part of establishing peace and security. Government and opposition calls for funding will have to be measured against desires to buy more weapons and carefully calibrated with serious steps taken to consolidate peace.
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Ultimately, implementation of the key aspects of the peace agreement will come down to the will of South Sudan’s leaders. If they are unwilling to put the lives of their citizens ahead of political and financial gain, then the countries that helped forge the agreement, particularly South Sudan’s neighbors, must be willing to hold them to account. Further regression will require new pressure whether in the form of an arms embargo or targeted sanctions on those responsible for getting in the way of peace.
As dire as the situation remains, the fact that a road map toward peace exists with backing by regional and international players is already an improvement from last year. But there is no time to lose in ensuring that road map is followed. The people of South Sudan cannot afford to wait.
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Why South Sudanese Adversaries Signed A Peace Deal Neither Want

9/9/2015

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Picture
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir signs a peace agreement in the capital Juba, on August 26, 2015. Reuters/Jok Solomun
Originally printed by The Conversation on September 3, 2015 - On paper, the South Sudanese government led by President Salva Kiir and its armed opposition, commanded by former vice president Riek Machar, have agreed to declare permanent ceasefire.

They also agreed to establish a transitional government, collaboratively work towards a permanent constitution and legislatively establish reconciliation and peace-building institutions. All these are stipulated in a peace agreement that both the government and the rebels have reluctantly agreed to sign.

But, fighting has already resumed and senior military officers have publicly shared their disapproval of the deal. Given the well-known problems of underdeveloped military discipline and command structure in both armed groups, the imminent disruption of this peace agreement’s implementation is highly probable.

It does not help that neither party says this was a reasonable compromise. Kiir said the agreement looked like a roadmap for regime change. Machar argued that the agreement gave Kiir’s government the “lion’s share” of everything. Press reports speculate that Machar’s two generals, Peter Gatdet and Gathoth Gatkuoth, fell out with him because of differences over the deal. Forces loyal to the two generals remain an unpredictable presence.

So why did the government and the opposition, who are unhappy with the content of the agreement, sign it anyway? And what are the potential consequences of this induced peace accord?

Understanding the conflictTo answer that, we have to take note of one thing about the conflict. It resulted from power struggles within the ruling political party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The party-level issues have been addressed in a separate deal called the Arusha Proccess, which restored the situation as it was before.

The peace process, led by the East African Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), has largely been about restoring the status quo at the level of government, but it repeatedly failed over the last 20 months. Each failure seemed to trigger more intense military action and wide spread human rights violations of an outrageous nature.

It was unsurprising, therefore, when US President Barack Obama expressed extreme frustration on his recent visit to the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa. Obama met with African leaders to discuss the South Sudanese conflict but deliberately excluded the parties to the conflict. The logic of this arrangement was made abundantly clear by the State Department. Obama was not there as a mediator, but as a coalition builder for peace.

The coalition Obama was trying to build worked because IGAD Plus, a brainchild of the International Crisis Group, consisting of IGAD countries plus the African Union, the US, China, the UK, Norway and the EU, took centre stage. Obama’s consultation with the “key stakeholders” (excluding South Sudanese) arrived at August 17 as the deadline for a peace agreement authorising permanent ceasefire within days.

A quick-fix ceasefireThis firm call for ceasefire has broad support in South Sudan and internationally. However, the deadline only gave everyone involved in negotiations about three weeks to resolve a 20-month-old conflict that has pre-independence roots.

How much time did the parties and the mediators have to really negotiate? My guess is not enough. Sustainable conflict resolution requires at least three things:

  • First, that the parties to conflict feel like the content of the peace agreement they sign is a reasonable, properly negotiated compromise;

  • Second, as a consequence of this (illusory or otherwise) they should be able to own it and sell it to their constituencies with phrases like, “this is a bad agreement but we signed it because…”; and

  • Third, the agreement itself should not pose obvious and publicly resisted threats to those who are supposed to sign and implement it.

The peace agreement that Machar and Kiir reluctantly signed violates all of these fundamental aspects of long-term resolution of violent conflict. So why did they sign it anyway?

There are three main drivers:

  • This particular war has no moral foundation and the people of South Sudan are tired of violence. Both parties are aware of this and want a way out of the cycles of violence;

  • War hurts the interests of all the “friends of South Sudan” – the US, China, the UK, Norway and the EU – and they can generate a lot of pressure;

  • The conduct of war has been increasingly raising difficult questions nobody wants to answer.

An uncertain futureThese are immediate concerns that potentially contributed to the necessity of this quick way out of the conflict. The two most problematic provisions are institutions for implementing peace and reconciliation, namely the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC)and the Hybrid Court for South Sudan. The JMEC will oversee the implementation of the agreement and the HCSS will prosecute human rights violators.

Both will be legislated and funded by the Transitional National Assembly of South Sudanbut will assume supremacy over the national executive, legislature and judiciary. They will be led by non-South Sudanese with diplomatic immunity which means, once they are instituted, South Sudanese sovereignty will be curtailed. Kiir’s supporters have branded this a “trusteeship”. These provisions have the potential to turn public opinion against the agreement.

Another potential spoiler of peace lies in one provision of the hybrid court. The court will be empowered to indict anyone and such indictments would be tantamount to disqualification for pursuing any elected office towards the end of the transitional period. These provisions have the potential to undermine the agreement and therefore need to be revised to give peace a real chance.
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    Zirra B.

    Chief Publisher of the World Report News Africa News column and of all African news publications at WRN, Zirra Banu also serves as a ECOWAS Peace Ambassador and was the managing editor of Face2Face Africa. She is the founder of the Sapel Gold Foundation and the co-founder of Water For Life Nigeria. Zirra received her Master's degrees in International Relations, International Economics, and Conflict Management in Africa from The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

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